Backcasting

What is Backcasting?

Backcasting is “the cool sister of forecasting”. Instead of departing from the now, we begin by defining a desirable future. This future must be desirable, though it doesn’t have to be a utopia. Picturing how things could go wrong is easier and also not what we need right now; we need to figure out futures we want to move towards, not away from. This future then becomes the point of departure for discussions, usually in smaller groups. Looking back in time, these groups define key events and decisions that should lead to the defined future. These can be as large as environmental events, policy changes, restructuring of society or as small as design fashions, food choices, and language fads.

We recommend using the Four Futures exercise detailed here to come up with the future from which to start backcasting.

The participants have full freedom in charting out this timeline except that they cannot speculate "blank slate" events like an apocalypse or "reset" of humanity (provided by space travel to another planet for example).

As one moves closer to the now, the events and decisions naturally become more concrete, slowly picking up on issues we are facing in the present and their possible resolutions. The most sensitive, and hard to pull off, part of this exercise is linking that nearer and nearer future to the present. Some groups pull it off, diving deeper into next steps as we see them today, but groups should be encouraged to leave the next 15-20 years vague if they need to.

How to use Backcasting

This method can be applied in a number of different contexts and adapted according to the aim, available time frame and resources. A backcasting workshop can last from several hours to several days. It can be used as a creative tool as well as a strategic methodology, to draft policy as well as write science fiction. For example, it can be tied into the Four Futures methodology used above.The future that backcasting works back from is chosen from one of the quadrants created by the Four Futures exercise, usually the one deemed the most desirable of the four. The participants should be encouraged to pick a quadrant from another group's Four Futures graph, so that ideas can cross-pollinate.

The participants then utilize the backcasting methodology to work back from that future and try to chart back the progress needed to get there from the present.

Each future timeline is then presented to the larger group, and they discuss their deliberations, speculations and the "interim states" on the way to the selected future. Other groups should be encouraged to ask questions about the decisions the presented group made: why was one path chosen over another? What other “micro-steps” can the group think of on the way to their chosen future? And, perhaps more importantly, is the future or the path they ended up charting towards it really desirable? The group which originally created the future as part of the Four Futures exercise should be asked to briefly state whether the future presented gels, more or less, with how they envisioned it or if it has varied in any significant sense. Variation is good! Discussing it can lead to insights into how different perspectives see a similar future.

Backcasting is becoming an increasingly popular tool for creative policy making (City of Berlin), participatory art formats (theater) as well as attempting to formulate positive ideas in order to promote a sense of agency rather than frustration amongst activists: For instance by using backcasting to draw up a time line to 2030 in which we actually get to save the planet from the approaching climate crisis.

Read more about how Backcasting can be used to tackle real life issues like the climate emergency.